This Might Be Your Last Chance to Buy Physical Xbox Games

You might have heard the term “lost media“. Historically, it’s referred to works of literature, film, and music that were never properly archived and were swallowed up by time. We know of them through references from surviving works, but we can’t ever experience them ourselves.

Ironically, the turn into the digital era has seen a rise in lost works, especially video games. There are countless video essays and writeups documenting the phenomenon that you can look to for more answers, but it’s bizarre to see so many published games and hours of work vanish into the air only a few decades after their release, especially with so many options for data preservation.

A physical copy of the title is one of the only ways to safeguard against corporate data mismanagement and apathy, but they’ve become increasingly disfavored in the last decade or so. Even games that ship a “physical copy” are actually just a code for a digital download of the game.

We’ve seen this coming for years, and it seems like Microsoft will be the first to throw in the towel. This week, thousands of retailers have begun to pull Xbox titles from the shelves without replacing. This is happening across the board too, from major stores like Walmart and Target to dedicated games retailers like GameStop.

With Xbox losing the console war for the thirteenth year straight, the writing was more or less on the wall. Publishing physical copies is expensive, and eating into their already thin profit margins. After Microsoft’s spending spree in the last few years, it’s looking like their finally tightening the belt in any way they can.

The wind down has not been officially confirmed by Xbox. During June’s Xbox showcase, viewers noticed that none of the upcoming games had a SKU for physical copies. This came shortly after reports of widespread layoffs focused in Microsoft’s physical publishing arm, and Redditors have been noticing Xbox displays becoming smaller and emptier in the last few weeks. The last physical copy of an Xbox game is probably sitting on a GameStop shelf somewhere.

It’s a question both resellers and gamers are asking. While Xbox has held a fraction of the console market share for years now, that still adds up to tens of millions of gamers.

And we’ve tracked markets for discontinued physical copies in the past. Remember Concord? Shortly after its legendary flop of a release, Sony killed the game and yanked it from digital storefronts. Physical copies of the game became the only way to play it, and they briefly spiked to double the listed MSRP on eBay.

This is a very uncommon example as companies generally don’t kill their AAA projects in their infancies, but it shows that markets for digitally discontinued games can manifest in their physical copies.

With this policy seemingly already in effect, the time to buy physical copies of Xbox games is right now. But we’re not recommending clearing out shelves; just the opposite in fact. If you’re looking at these games there are some key criteria to consider.

For one, is the game actually popular? We’re expecting that once Microsoft officially confirms they’re no longer in the physical publishing business, gamers will quickly rush to pick up physical copies of their favorite titles. That spike in interest won’t last long, and it will be centered around only the biggest games.

It’s also worth considering if a game is focused around online play. These titles could be worth considerably less in the event of a delisting, as their online features will likely be culled around the same time.

One of the most important factors might be licensing issues. Racing games are the best example of this, as the publisher has to work with a long list of car manufacturers and musical artists to authorize their depictions in the game. Generally, they’re only permitted to sell the game for a set period before they’re permanently digitally delisted.

So, we’re looking for a popular game (or series) that’s playable without an internet connection, bonus points for a racing game. That sounds exactly like “Forza Horizon 5“, one of Microsoft’s flagship games.

With its sequel set for release some time next year, FH5 will likely be hitting end-of-life status around 2027, at least if it follows the same pattern as other Horizon games.

We’re not saying to buy every physical copy you can find, but “Forza Horizon 5” should be high on list if you’re looking to stock up on copies before they sell out. We’d also recommend focusing on the most recent releases, as these will likely have the smallest pool of physical copies available.

That’s all for today. This is quite a bit more speculative than most flips we cover, but we didn’t want our readers to miss out on a potential opportunity. If you’re looking for more tangible flips, make sure you check out our articles on Daft Punk’s upcoming G-Shock collab or Lebron’s limited edition bottles of Hennessy.