Pokemon Mega Evolution Set Has the Hardest Pull Rates Ever

First, a little disclaimer. We’re talking about a set that released less than a month ago, so market prices are still volatile and will continue moving as more boxes get opened. But the early data is wild enough that collectors need to know what they’re getting into before dropping serious money chasing these cards.

The Mega Evolution set brings back Mega Pokemon ex with updated mechanics that fit modern gameplay. Unlike the old XY-era Megas that required full evolution lines before Mega Evolving, these new versions streamline the process.

The set includes nearly a dozen Mega Evolution Pokemon ex, over 50 Pokemon and Trainer cards with special illustrations, 22 Illustration Rare cards, and those brutally difficult Mega Hyper Rare Gold cards that everyone’s chasing. The regular ex versions are accessible, but the premium versions are where collectors are getting cooked.

The Mega Hyper Rares are testing collectors’ patience and wallets in ways the hobby hasn’t seen before, and market prices reflect that difficulty. Within minutes of products hitting the Pokemon Center website, resellers had Elite Trainer Boxes, Booster Boxes, and Booster Bundles listed on eBay at multiples of retail.

The familiar pattern played out again, but this time the secondary market premiums are sticking because people genuinely can’t pull these cards.

Pull rates determine everything in the Pokemon TCG market. When cards are difficult to obtain from packs, secondary market prices rise to reflect that scarcity. The Pokemon Company has always used pull rates to create chase cards, but Mega Hyper Rares represent a new level of difficulty.

Amateur researchers tracking pack openings found these gold cards appearing at rates significantly lower than previous Secret Rare categories. We’re talking about odds that make pulling an Alternate Art from Sword & Shield sets look generous.

That extreme scarcity is driving prices up fast, and unlike typical release hype that fades after a few weeks, these prices are holding because supply genuinely cannot meet demand.

Mega Lucario ex in Mega Hyper Rare Gold is trading around $718 average on eBay, with some listings hitting $771. Mega Gardevoir ex Mega Hyper Rare Gold follows similar patterns. These numbers are absolutely unhinged for cards from a set that’s barely a month old, but that’s what happens when pull rates are this brutal.

The regular versions provide context for how extreme this rarity is. Mega Lucario ex regular version sits at $2.35. The Ultra Rare version is $22. The Special Illustration Rare (SIR) version—which is gorgeous, by the way—trades at $286. Then you jump to $718+ for the gold version that’s frankly uglier than the SIR. That price differential exists purely because of rarity, not because the gold card looks better or plays differently.

Pokemon TCG collectors have seen artificial scarcity before. Prismatic Evolutions earlier this year created similar reseller chaos with limited supply and high demand. But Mega Evolution’s situation is different because the pull rates themselves are the primary driver, not just allocated product quantities.

The Pokemon TCG Pocket mobile app is approaching its first anniversary in late October, which creates additional buzz around Pokemon cards generally. The app has successfully introduced a new generation of collectors to the TCG, and many of those digital collectors are transitioning to physical cards.

Pokemon TCG Pocket’s Producer Letter from October 2025 announced significant updates including a card sharing feature and improved trading systems. More importantly, they confirmed a new expansion featuring Mega Evolution Pokemon launching at the end of October. That digital release will drive additional interest in the physical Mega Evolution set as collectors want both versions.

This cross-platform momentum matters for resellers and collectors. When digital and physical releases align around the same theme, overall market interest amplifies. People playing with Mega Evolution cards in the mobile app get inspired to chase physical versions, driving secondary market demand higher.

Buying sealed Mega Evolution product to chase Mega Hyper Rares is gambling, not investing. The math doesn’t work unless you get astronomically lucky or you’re opening cases for content creation and can recoup costs through other revenue streams.

Buying singles makes more sense for most collectors. The SIR versions give you beautiful cards at prices that, while elevated, aren’t completely disconnected from reality. The Ultra Rare versions provide playable copies without breaking the bank. The Mega Hyper Rare Gold cards are for completionists with deep pockets or people making long-term investment plays betting these become the new grails as the set ages.

If you’re sitting on sealed Mega Evolution product, holding makes sense. Pull rates this difficult mean supply will remain constrained even as more product releases. Booster Boxes from sets with brutal chase cards tend to appreciate over time as fewer boxes remain sealed and more collectors complete their sets through singles purchases, but we’ll never fault a reseller for taking guaranteed profits early.

Pokemon TCG’s Phantasmal Flames set drops November 14, continuing the Mega Evolution series with cards from the Japanese Inferno X set. Mega Charizard X takes center stage, which means more Mega Hyper Rare chasing and probably more brutal pull rates. Make sure you check our full coverage of the drop here.

If Pokemon Company maintains these difficulty levels across future Mega Evolution sets, we’re looking at a new tier of chase cards that will dominate the hobby for the next year. That’s good news for anyone who pulls them and terrible news for completionists trying to collect every card.

The broader Pokemon TCG market is heating up after cooling during early Scarlet & Violet era. Alternate Arts from Sword & Shield sets are climbing again. Current Scarlet & Violet sets are seeing renewed collector interest. Mega Evolution launching with extreme scarcity is amplifying that momentum and bringing even more money into the hobby.

Pokemon Mega Evolution’s Mega Hyper Rare pull rates are no joke. These cards are genuinely difficult to obtain, and market prices reflect that reality. Whether you’re chasing them, holding sealed product, or buying singles, understand you’re dealing with some of the scarcest cards in modern Pokemon TCG history.

The set is less than a month old and prices are still volatile. Smart money waits for more data before making huge purchases. But if you pulled a Mega Hyper Rare Gold already, congratulations –– maybe it’s time to buy a lottery ticket.